CAP方法反演震源机制的误差分析:以胶东半岛两次显著中等地震为例   总被引：11，自引：3，他引：8       下载免费PDF全文

郑建常  林眉  王鹏  徐长朋 《地球物理学报》2015,58(2):453-462

利用区域波形数据使用CAP方法反演中强地震的震源机制正逐渐得到广泛应用.本文以胶东半岛近期发生的两次显著中等地震为例,讨论了使用CAP方法反演震源机制时的误差估计,展示了反演结果的不确定性分析过程.2013年11月23日和2014年1月7日在山东莱州和乳山分别发生了M4.6和M4.3级中等地震,两次事件均造成了较大影响.我们基于CAP方法,使用自助抽样(bootstrap)技术多次重复反演过程,得到大样本量的震源机制解数据;基于这些数据,使用粒子群算法和聚类分析技术给出了优化解,估计了震源机制解的误差范围,并利用震源机制解的P、T轴给出了震源球上的概率密度分布.  相似文献   

大磁暴期间TIEGCM模式和CHAMP卫星热层大气密度扰动特性的统计研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

李嘉巍  吴媛  张效信  王文斌  周率 《地球物理学报》2015,58(3):709-720

本文统计分析了2001—2005年的39次大磁暴事件(Dst-100nT)期间TIEGCM模式和CHAMP卫星大气密度数据.研究结果表明,模式结果与实测数据具有较好的一致性,但仍存在一定的偏差.大气密度及增量与SYM-H指数相关性较好,并且随纬度、光照条件和地磁活动水平变化.模式低估了磁暴期间大气密度的增幅,特别是在地磁活动水平较强时模式与实测的偏差较大.模式的偏差在高纬地区高于低纬地区,日侧高于夜侧.Dst指数越低,偏差越大,而当Dst指数低于-150nT以后,绝对偏差和相对偏差变化不明显.  相似文献   

2013年四川芦山M_S7.0地震 强地面运动模拟   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

药晓东  章文波 《地震学报》2015,37(4):599-616

运用经验格林函数法模拟2013年4月20日芦山M_S7.0地震的近场强地面运动. 在拟合过程中, 首先参考前人远场反演结果给出的滑动量分布特征和主震波形的包络线特征, 确定强震动生成区的大致范围和数量; 然后利用Somerville等提出的地震矩与凹凸体面积的经验关系式确定强震动生成区细小划分的初值, 继而利用遗传优化算法确定以上二者的最优值及其它震源参数. 将数值模拟波形与实际地震观测记录在时间域和频率域分别进行比较, 结果显示, 在所选取的30个观测台站中, 多数台站的数值模拟结果与实际观测结果符合得很好, 特别是大于1 Hz的高频部分. 断层面上有两个强震动生成区, 其位置与前人反演的滑动量集中分布区相一致, 而且强震动生成区规模比Somerville等获得的标度率估计值要小.   相似文献   

Applying local Green's functions to study the influence of the crustal structure on hydrological loading displacements     

《Journal of Geodynamics》2015

The influence of the elastic Earth properties on seasonal or shorter periodic surface deformations due to atmospheric surface pressure and terrestrial water storage variations is usually modeled by applying a local half-space model or an one dimensional spherical Earth model like PREM from which a unique set of elastic load Love numbers, or alternatively, elastic Green's functions are derived. The first model is valid only if load and observer almost coincide, the second model considers only the response of an average Earth structure. However, for surface loads with horizontal scales less than 2500 km², as for instance, for strong localized hydrological signals associated with heavy precipitation events and river floods, the Earth elastic response becomes very sensitive to inhomogeneities in the Earth crustal structure.We derive a set of local Green's functions defined globally on a 1° × 1° grid for the 3-layer crustal structure TEA12. Local Green's functions show standard deviations of ±12% in the vertical and ±21% in the horizontal directions for distances in the range from 0.1° to 0.5°. By means of Green's function scatter plots, we analyze the dependence of the load response to various crustal rocks and layer thicknesses. The application of local Green's functions instead of a mean global Green's function introduces a variability of 0.5–1.0 mm into the hydrological loading displacements, both in vertical and in horizontal directions. Maximum changes due to the local crustal structures are from −25% to +26% in the vertical and −91% to +55% in the horizontal displacements. In addition, the horizontal displacement can change its direction significantly. The lateral deviations in surface deformation due to local crustal elastic properties are found to be much larger than the differences between various commonly used one-dimensional Earth models.  相似文献   

Nonlinear stochastic seismic analysis of buried pipeline systems     

《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2015

In this paper, a nonlinear stochastic seismic analysis program for buried pipeline systems is developed on the basis of a probability density evolution method (PDEM). A finite element model of buried pipeline systems subjected to seismic wave propagation is established. The pipelines in this model are simulated by 2D beam elements. The soil surrounding the pipelines is simulated by nonlinear distributed springs and linear distributed springs along the axial and horizontal directions, respectively. The joints between the segmented pipes are simulated by nonlinear concentrated springs. Thereafter, by considering the basic random variables of ground motion and soil, the PDEM is employed to capture the stochastic seismic responses of pipeline systems. Meanwhile, a physically based method is employed to simulate the random ground motion field for the area where the pipeline systems are located. Finally, a numerical example is investigated to validate the proposed program.  相似文献   

Generalized failure envelope for caisson foundations in cohesive soil: Static and dynamic loading     

《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2015

The response of massive caisson foundations to combined vertical (N), horizontal (Q) and moment (M) loading is investigated parametrically by a series of three-dimensional finite element analyses. The study considers foundations in cohesive soil, with due consideration to the caisson-soil contact interface conditions. The ultimate limit states are presented by failure envelopes in dimensionless and normalized forms and the effects of the embedment ratio, vertical load and interface friction on the bearing capacity are studied in detail. Particular emphasis is given on the physical and geometrical interpretation of the kinematic mechanisms that accompany failure, with respect to the loading ratio M/Q. Exploiting the numerical results, analytical expressions are derived for the capacities under pure horizontal, moment and vertical loading, for certain conditions. For the case of fully bonded interface conditions, comparison is given with upper bound limit equilibrium solutions based on Brinch Hansen theory for the ultimate lateral soil reaction. A generalized closed-form expression for the failure envelope in M–Q–N space is then proposed and validated for all cases examined. It is shown that the incremental displacement vector of the caisson at failure follows an associated flow rule, with respect to the envelope, irrespective of: (a) the caisson geometry, and (b) the interface conditions. A simplified geometrical explanation and physical interpretation of the associativity in M-Q load space is also provided. Finally, the derived failure envelope is validated against low (0.67 Hz) and high frequency (5 Hz) dynamic loading tests and the role of radiation damping on the response of the caisson at near failure conditions is unraveled.  相似文献   

Time series analysis of the world's longest fluvial nitrate record: evidence for changing states of catchment saturation          下载免费PDF全文

Fred Worrall  Nicholas J. K. Howden  Tim P. Burt 《水文研究》2015,29(3):434-444

Processes that drive the occurrence of nitrate concentrations in surface waters are known to operate over many decades longer than the available observations. This study considers the world's longest water quality record of nitrate concentrations in the River Thames (1868–2009) in order to understand whether the nature of the time series has changed with time and such external drivers as climate change and land use of hydrology. The study considers the linear trend, the seasonality, the memory and the impulsivity relative to river flow of the time series for moving windows of 6 years in length. The study can show that:

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川滇M≥6.7强震的二维坐标系与时间预测研究     

孙宗强  解晓静  高华宴  王咏梅  方燕勋  王斌  姚玉霞  曹晓丽  吴艳芳 《中国地震研究》2015,29(1):128-135

20世纪以来,川滇地区M≥6.7强震时间间隔具有良好的规律性,其地震发生的年份可组成一个二维时间坐标系,并据此建立川滇地区的强震时间预测模型。预测分析表明：未来16年,川滇地区可能存在发生4次6.7级以上地震发生的风险,2012-2021及2025-2029年均有M≥6.7强震信号,且未来强震可能发生在2014-2015、2019与2027年前后。  相似文献   

新疆巴楚和塔什库尔干地震台下方地壳结构研究     

唐明帅  王海涛  罗炬  孔祥艳  杨峰 《中国地震研究》2015,29(2):265-274

Using the teleseismic waveform data recorded by the seismic station Bachu( hereafter referred to as station BCH) i n the Tarim Basin and the seismic station Taxkorgan(h ereafter referred to as station TAG) i n the west Kunlun Mountains for years,we applied the receiver function H-κ stacking method to study the crustal structure beneath stations BCH and TAG. The results showed that there are obvious differences in the crustal thickness beneath stations BCH and TAG,and the regional crustal thickness and terrain have a very good corresponding relationship. There are high crustal average V P/ V S values beneath the two stations. The crustal thickness is 44 km,and the crustal average wave velocity ratio is 1. 849 beneath station BCH. There is a sharp discontinuity in the middle of the crust beneath station BCH at a depth of 21 km. There is a low average P wave velocity and low V P/ V S from the surface to the discontinuity beneath station BCH.The depth of the discontinuity is consistent with the lower interface of the focal depth from accurate location in the Jiashi earthquake source area adjacent to station BCH; and may be the crustal brittle-ductile conversion boundary. The crustal thickness is 69 km,and the crustal average wave velocity ratio is 1. 847 beneath station TAG,a thicker crust and high V P/ V S may indicate that materials in the lower crustal are prone to plastic flow,which is responsible for the thickening of the crust.  相似文献   

巴基斯坦达尔巴丁(Dalbandin）地震前观测到的电离层foF2异常变化     

穆罕默德?伊尔凡  阿夫塔?阿拉姆  默罕默德?朱奈德  默罕默德?埃亚茨?阿明  达拉?伊克巴尔  黄辅琼 《中国地震研究》2015,29(4):567-575

电离层foF2变化对地震反应非常敏感,与地震有关的电离层扰动变化结果似乎非常有望用于地震短期预测。格林威治时间2011年1月18日20:23分,一次7.2级的大地震发生在巴基斯坦的达尔巴丁(28.73oＮ, 63.92oＥ）。本文研究中,我们必须利用架设在巴基斯坦的伊斯兰堡（33.78oN, 73.06oE）、玛尔坦（32.26oN,71.51oE）和卡拉奇（24.89oN,67.02oE）三个垂直探测台站获得的白天（08:00 a.m. - 05:00 p.m.）小时值数据找出地震前的foF2异常变化特征。结果显示,在达尔巴丁地震前几天,foF2出现了显著变化;并且距离震中最近的台站观测到的频率与幅度异常变化大于较远的位于孕震区边缘的台站。尽管地震异常特征显著,但增加其它电离层参数可以提高foF2异常的高置信度水平。  相似文献